The financial modelling scenarios undertaken by KPMG suggest that the sector needs to change significantly to achieve financial sustainability.

Here are some of the key findings of the report:

• In all scenarios, except for the most optimistic, the modelling suggests that the majority of ITPs will move into deficit positions from 2018 onwards.
• The best case scenario suggests that, even with steady international ETFS students and some growth in domestic EFTS and government funding, 10 of New Zealand’s 16 ITPs will return deficit results in 2018, with that number reducing to eight from 2020 onwards.
• In the worst case scenario, the ITP sector could be facing an overall cash shortfall of around $280 million by 2022.

The research looks at the sector as a whole. Individual ITPs may have a different financial outlook, depending on their unique circumstances.

Read the ITP Roadmap 2020 Sector Financial Modelling report (PDF 940 KB)

Have more questions? See Financial Modelling FAQs (PDF 766 KB) 

The financial modelling research was undertaken as part of the Government’s ITP Roadmap 2020 project, the primary goal of which is to help secure a sustainable future for ITPs. Alongside looking at research and data on the sector, the TEC is working with a wide range of parties to get their perspective and input – from unions to senior management of ITPs, their staff and students, and the wider communities. This is helping the TEC to build a deeper understanding of the issues and the kinds of options that will ensure the financial viability of the sector over the long term.